Failure To Deport Illegal Migrants Will Cost Billions

The Refugee Council has estimated that 150,000 asylum seekers will have their claims denied in the next three years but they will not be deported as a result of the government’s Illegal Migration Bill.

In a new report the organisation which works with refugees and asylums seekers, claims that it will cost £9 billion to detain arrivals and accommodate those who cannot be removed. Up to 45,000 children will be locked up under the new legislation.

According to The Times:

Anyone who arrives in Britain illegally would be barred from claiming asylum under the bill, which places a duty on the home secretary to remove them from the country, either by returning them to their home country or removing them to a safe third country such as Rwanda.

The legislation will give the Home Office the power to detain people for at least 28 days. It is looking for new detention sites to boost official capacity from 2,500, reducing the need to house tens of thousands of asylum seekers in hotels.

Next week the bill is due to return to the Commons for scrutiny and votes. The Home Office has not published the usual impact assessment that normally accompanies new legislation but the Refugee Council has published its own.

It based its analysis on Home Office projections that about 65,000 people will cross the Channel in small boats this year.

For the following two years it assumes that there will be some form of deterrent effect from the legislation and predicts that crossings will fall by about 10,000 a year. Rishi Sunak has promised to “stop the boats”.

The Refugee Council accepts that it has less resources than the Home Office does for making forecasts, although it said that there was no evidence that deterrent measures had much impact.

As part of their impact assessment the Refugee Council’s policy experts worked on the assumption that the government manages to remove 30,000 refugees under its Rwanda scheme over the next three years.

They predicted that between 225,000 and 257,000 people would arrive illegally over the next three years via small boats, in the back of lorries or other irregular routes with the intention of claiming asylum.

Under the terms of the Illegal Migration Bill they will be deemed inadmissible to the UK asylum system. This includes between 39,000 and 45,000 children.

By the end of the third year, the analysis predicts that between 160,000 and 192,000 people will have been barred from the asylum system but not removed.

The Refugee Council said that a large proportion would be from Afghanistan, Iran, Eritrea, Sudan and Syria, where refugees have increasingly limited safe and legal routes to reach the UK.

At present refugee resettlement to the UK from UN refugee camps is 75 per cent lower than the pre-Covid level in 2019, and refugee family reunion visas are 40 per cent down.

Under the bill, asylum seekers will be unable to have their claims processed, unable to work and would rely on Home Office support and accommodation indefinitely, the Refugee Council warned.

It predicts that between £8.7 billion and £9.6 billion will have been spent on detaining and accommodating people impacted by the bill in the first three years of its operation.

The Home Office has pointed out that the cost of accommodating asylum seekers for this financial year is predicted to reach £2.7 billion.

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