The Home Office is predicting a sharp rise in immigration by the next election, with an influx of more than one million foreign workers and students projected in 2024 should ministers fail to take action.
According to The Telegraph:
The Telegraph can reveal that an official document sent to Downing Street last year warned about the projected spikes in net migration and set out a series of policy options for the Conservatives to meet their 2019 manifesto pledge to bring “overall numbers down”.
The 12-page analysis forecast that work and study visa applications could increase by as much as 40 per cent in the three years to 2024-25, with more than 700,000 overseas students and 320,000 skilled workers arriving in that year.
It would come as the Tories head into an election where the UK’s post-Brexit control of its borders will be a major campaign issue.
The revelation came on top of a record 504,000 in net migration posted last summer with expert forecasts that net migration could rise further to hit a record 700,000 for the year ending December – and potentially even 997,000 when the official figures are published in two weeks’ time.
While the warnings from officials are about legal migration, Rishi Sunak has made tackling illegal entry into the UK one of his five priorities
On Tuesday he will tell fellow leaders at the Council of Europe that tackling small boats is not just a British issue.
He will say illegal migration is putting unbearable pressures on countries throughout the continent and that they need to “cooperate across borders” to tackle the humanitarian disaster caused by illegal immigration.
On Monday, Suella Braverman warned that as well as preventing “illegal migration”, the Government “must not lose sight of the importance of controlling legal migration as well”.
The Home Secretary also warned that an “unexamined drive towards multiculturalism”, combined with identity politics, is a recipe for disaster.
Mrs Braverman has been pushing for tougher controls on legal migration and is believed to favour raising the salary threshold for skilled workers, currently set at £26,600. That is 20 per cent below the median UK salary of £33,280.
There are thought to be divisions in the Cabinet on how to deal with migration, with some ministers relaxed about an influx of foreign workers, believing it can help boost the economy and others determined to cut the overall number.
The document, entitled Net Migration Briefing August 2022, warned that there was a “limited window” to make changes as any new policies would “take time to implement”.
It is understood that the analysis by Home Office officials was prepared during the Tory leadership campaign ready for any incoming home secretary in September.
Sources said that it was sent to Number 10, but a spokesman for the Prime Minister denied that he had any knowledge of it. “It was before the current PM’s time,” said one source.
