40C Summers will become the new normal in Britain according to the Met Office.
A new report on the state of Britain’s climate claims that last years 40C heatwave is a “sign of things to come” with climate change.
According to The Times:
As well as being the warmest year in England since 1659 and the hottest for the UK as a whole since 1884, January to August was the driest in England and Wales since the infamously hot 1976.
So far this year the UK has escaped a repeat of the 40C heatwave last July, which triggered the country’s first red heat alert. However, June was Britain’s hottest in a series going back almost 140 years, at an average of 15.8C.
Studies by the Met Office have found that both the 40C milestone and the 10.03C average for last year were made more likely by climate change.
“2022 for me was very much a sign of things to come in future years with our changing climate,” said Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, which worked on the report.
Bentley said last year’s hot and dry summer was typical of what could be expected from future summers.
The Met Office said that by 2100, if future emissions follow a medium pathway roughly in line with countries’ current climate plans, 40C heatwaves like last year’s will be likely to happen once every 15 years.
However, in a worst-case scenario where emissions are higher, the likelihood would jump to once every three years. That would mean Britain’s annual average temperature, which is about 1C warmer than the average for 1991 to 2020, would be more than 3C hotter by 2100.
“If we end up in the scenario where 40 degrees in the UK is as common as that, then that is obviously seriously bad news,” Mike Kendon, a climate scientist at the Met Office, said.
The report makes clear that while Britain’s average temperatures are inching up with the carbon emissions, the country’s extreme temperatures are changing much faster.
Last year’s heat caused disruptions to transport, pressure on energy systems and has been linked to more than 3,000 deaths.
The warmth also had an impact on the natural world. As well as water companies putting pressure on fish and other freshwater life by drawing more water than normal from rivers to cope with drought, flowers and trees shifted their timings.
Hazel, which normally flowers in mid-January, was recorded as flowering ten days earlier than the average for the past two decades. The season when leaves were on trees was extended by between seven and 16 days.
