Migration levels could reach twice the numbers seen before Brexit, according to experts.
According to The Telegraph:
They are predicting that net migration – the number entering the UK minus those leaving – could hit a record high of 675,000, double the pre-Brexit peak of 331,000 eight years ago. This would surpass the previous high of 504,000 set in the year to June 2022.
The jump has been fuelled by a continued sharp increase in non-EU migrants entering the UK to work, study, escape conflict or oppression and join relatives. The increase has more than compensated for the fall in EU citizens whose numbers have slumped since Brexit ended freedom of movement.
The figures will pile pressure on the Government over its 2019 election manifesto pledge to bring down net migration, a promise repeated by Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister and Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary. She told the 2022 Tory conference that her ambition was to reduce it to below 100,000.
On Wednesday, the House of Lords will debate the Illegal Migration Bill for the first time, and the Government is braced for savage criticism.
Ministers expect multiple amendments from peers who will seek to water down or remove key parts of the legislation which severely restricts migrants’ ability to claim asylum in the UK. Under the proposals, nearly all those arriving illegally will be detained and deported to their home country or a safe third nation such as Rwanda.
Home Office data show that the year-on-year number of work, study and other visas granted to non-EU citizens excluding visitors has risen by 272,140 in the past six months, with a total of nearly 1.37 million applications accepted in the year to December 2022.
Not all of these will translate into overall immigration figures as some will not be long-term migrants. In previous years, non-EU migrants have accounted for 55 to 65 per cent of arrivals, which would suggest that immigration will be up by between 150,000 and 175,000.
“It’s plausible net migration could go up by about the same amount if there is not yet any change in emigration,” said one immigration expert, who anticipated there would be a lag before the numbers of people leaving the country started to rise.
“It’s possible emigration will start to increase and thus mitigate the increase in net migration resulting from more visas being issued, though I wouldn’t expect the main change in emigration to take place until around 2023-24.”
